Preparing your worksheet for an auto-update is relatively simple. In practice, we create many excel-based models, some of them for single-use, but many spreadsheets are often shared with colleagues, revised occasionally, and linger around for a long time. We then plugged in a new data point and observed the model advancing the forecast start date and updating forecast values. To demonstrate, we defined a GARCH model for the S&P 500 ETF monthly returns, calibrated the parameters' values, and constructed a volatility forecast term structure for the following 36 months. Which is sad, but probably inevitable.The topic of this newsletter is about setting up a forecasting model (e.g., ARMA, GARCH, Regression) in such a way that you (or someone else) can readily maintain it as new data points become available and forecasts are auto-updated. And if that’s true, we can expect more moves like this in Microsoft’s future. Moving to a more restricted update system in Windows 8.x looks like the first step in a general trend towards the less consumer-friendly model used by Apple and others. Backward compatibility is why so many people still run Windows XP: why upgrade your O/S if it suits your purposes and can still be kept reasonably secure? But it’s also the source of many problems. It appears that Microsoft has finally started down the path away from backward-compatibility and support for old versions of Windows. Apple saves an enormous amount of money and effort that would otherwise be spent on supporting old versions, developing updates for multiple O/S versions, and so on. While this is clearly a consumer-hostile stance, it’s easy to understand. Often, that also means upgrading the hardware. If you want to keep running that old version of OS X, you’re going to have problems, and you won’t have any recourse except to bite the bullet and upgrade. The answer is simple: Microsoft sees what Apple, Google, and other O/S developers are doing, and they want to do the same.Īnyone who owns a Mac knows that Apple’s support for previous versions of OS X is extremely limited. We previously wondered why Microsoft wasn’t simply labeling Update 1 as ‘Service Pack 1’, in keeping with their long-established practices. Apparently we weren’t the only ones, and there was enough angry feedback that Microsoft extended the period during which Windows 8.1 systems without Update 1 could continue receiving security updates, from 30 days to 120.īut why add this kind of limitation at all?Īrs Technica may have the answer to that question. In that post, we noted that Microsoft was making this update mandatory for all subsequent security updates, and wondered why they would do that. We recently wrote about the release of Update 1 for Windows 8.1. Update 2014Apr28: Ars Technica, The Verge, and the SANS InfoSec handlers diary all have additional information. This vulnerability is only the first in what is sure to be a long series that make using Internet Explorer on Windows XP extremely risky. Windows XP users should not – under any circumstance – still be using Internet Explorer as their default web browser or for browsing the web. Presumably Microsoft will produce a patch for this vulnerability, and an interim ‘Fix-It’ workaround may be made available soon, but in the meantime, you should either stop using Internet Explorer completely, or at least install and configure EMET. Microsoft is advising the usual caution, especially when clicking links in email and visiting unfamiliar web sites. This IE vulnerability is apparently based on a vulnerability in Flash. On April 26, Microsoft released Security Advisory 2963983, which describes a newly-discovered vulnerability affecting all versions of Internet Explorer.Īccording to the related MSRC blog post, attacks based on this vulnerability are being seen in the wild, but so far those attacks are limited.
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